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Saturday, September 21, 2013

The Playpen starts today

At this time of Holy Thursday the Cypriot banking employees have already been instructed surreal to open the doors of the banks after two weeks of being closed and bolted . Six hours of opening to the public in which they will not be able to make withdrawals over 300 euros , you can not cash checks or transfers abroad than 3,000 '- € . Nor can physically out of the country , or whether the lock reaches even the foresight to keep their money in the mattress.

For those who plan to liquidate some of its assets in order to get money and be able to keep out of reach confiscatory European has also decreed a playpen real estate and exports. In other words, whoever sells land, buildings or perform any export of services or goods, is also obliged to enter the banking circuit the amount resulting from that transaction. It has established a period of a week to see how the controls taxes , renewable indefinitely.

No one should escape these blockages or playpens can change their specific restrictions soon (amounts and types of transactions) , but at its core will last many months , perhaps beyond this 2013 . So the free movement of capital will not see in Cyprus for another looooong time , when money 's worth and much less locked . Is it about playpens , that the purpose of the blockade is to steal frozen assets value . And that can be accomplished either by external devaluation of the currency ( in which case you would leave the Eurozone Cyprus and re-converted the assets into a new local currency) , or by direct confiscation of money from non-resident and resident population ( mostly Russian ) , as is the case . No money blocking an entire country for beating around the bush , it is locked for the state steal it partially or completely , in one way or another , with the complicity or even the imposition of the Eurogroup and the EC in this case.

Therefore, the true yard starts today , when banks reopen their doors closed keeping the Cypriot banking system . And this situation will continue until the state and the EU decide that they have enough wealth plundered from the unwary who put their money in banks in Cyprus . And the same is true of what can happen at any time in the periphery of the eurozone , as the markets become stressed ( distrust ) enough .

Another question that so far has not been resolved is whether the seizure reach only to deposits and other cash settled on the banks' balance sheets ( IPFs , structured , junior and senior debt , shares of the bank and other financial products of the entity) , or also affect assets off bank balance simply have been deposited in Cypriot entities ( shares of listed companies , foreign investment funds , etc. . ) . The insolvency of the bank legally should not affect foreign assets to bank balance sheets for financial institutions to act as mere Cypriot depositors. But the law in this process is absent , and the Eurogroup has shown and induced legal uncertainty across the Eurozone worthy of the worst banana republic. We will see in the coming hours as if not only affect asset that has entered the Cypriot bank balance sheets , but also any asset that has entered through the door just physical or electronic banking system. And that this is not a "simple " default but before a default bank and state bank tried to contain neuroburócratas and inept politicians and Central .

Speaking of inept , as he begins to walk a yard indefinite and contagious throughout the Mediterranean , some Spanish banks launch first order circular notes and desperate among its customers to avoid the mass exodus of capital abroad . In these notes we read phrases worthy of police court , by their falsehood and malice, such as:

    Regarding the possibility that Spain might be the same circumstances [ in Cyprus ] , in BBVA Private Banking categorically reject it , to have occurred and the financial sector bailout . Indeed , Spain currently has a healthy inancial system , thanks to the rescue by the FROB to all financial institutions with solvency problems , amounting to 40,000 million euros. This rescue , along with the creation of the SAREB (which has served to nationalized banks divest themselves of troubled assets ) and the two royal decrees have forced a major effort provisioning to all Spanish financial system , guaranteed by present tissue healthy and well capitalized bank . Moreover, having deposits in Spain , once it has completed the reorganization of the financial system is even safer than having it in many other European Union countries .

However, the director of the IMF , Christine Lagarde , warned just a couple of weeks of the weakness of Spanish banks , excessively exposed to Spanish sovereign debt and holder of an inordinate amount of real estate. Lagarde stressed the high probability that both types of assets will lose value in the future , thereby causing a further need for recapitalization of Spanish banks . Not to mention the effects of capital flight that can carry the playpen Cyprus , it would be like disconnecting the artificial respiration of a terminally ill while cutting veins. Nor should we forget that the speech of the IMF has been since the beginning of this crisis, politically correct and therefore optimistic and unrealistic. So these circulars as BBVA are a Kafkaesque moral turpitude , that puts business interests of the entity 's financial security of citizens. Again Spanish banking prioritizes sales criteria , survival of the banking business , to the most basic professional and personal ethics , but this time in an already very extreme , which makes them especially outlaws .

As you can see , the situation that we drag the Cypriot yard is very delicate to Spain and Italy. The masks have fallen already, and finally speaks clearly . The bailouts will be paid by the people who need to be rescued . And if for there to block, seize , convert , control and steal from the citizens, not the slightest doubt you will be taken appropriate measures to pseudo - legalize these actions , as is being done in Cyprus. The money will go to search wherever you are and there is enough . First investors in banks, depositors and perhaps after all his customers, and in a first phase only nationally . If this is not enough because the hole is larger and too much money has already left the country , the next step will be the involvement of foreign accounts whose owners are citizens of the country concerned . Is there life beyond ? There is, but unfortunately to no less than 250,000 savers ' - € . Only managing our assets from banks abroad and whose ownership is not a Spanish legal entity represents a barrier today to secure enough confiscatory greed struggling countries in collusion with Brussels. This is a scenario in which what it is to bring the money from other more naive and less farsighted between confiscatory and our heritage. That money from other more confident and / or worse is advised that satiates the needs of bank capitalization and states. Because when that happens the law and order ( and why not , economic growth ) will return to their beds , but along the way will have been the estates of people who have taken fewer security measures . We have before us a long mined in the desert to survive the heat and thirst ( economic crisis ) does not prevent die for having stepped in the wrong place ( confiscation and playpens ) .

At the end of the EU give legal cover any foray keep afloat involving the periphery without affecting the pockets of the richest countries . Technically the restrictions that will determine the EC are called " overriding public interest action " under which anything goes, as for example: " ... including holidays for banks , limits on cash withdrawal , freezing assets , the prohibition of fixed deposits close and execute certain orders, restrictions on the use of credit cards , debit or prepaid and other banking operations , and the execution of certain transactions subject to approval by the Central Bank ( eye ) as well as other steps ... " . Solidarity is over. Now we just legal uncertainty Eurozone Mafia , and our own misery. Be too careful , and the best advice is stronger than ever as a vital necessity . The yard has just begun .

Bitcoin is over a billion dollars

This Thursday , BitCoins history marked a new milestone to exceed the value of the billions of dollars of Bitcoins in circulation, ie the actual number of bitcoins issued , 10.97 million by the dollar price that was changed one bitcoin that exceeded the $ 90 mark . Today and Sunday Bitcoin trading at $ 94.75 . The decisions of our "beloved" leaders are the main guarantee of success for BitCoin , alternative electronic currency and central banks are showing right now , more investment antifrágil be a black swan in our monetary system . Antifrágil is an interesting concept coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and relates those things which are enhanced by the appearance of a Black Swan .

In the case of Bitcoin , since last November 2012 to today 's price against the dollar has gone from $ 10 to $ 94 ( appreciation of 840 % in 4 months) and since early March has today has gone from $ 30 to $ 94 ( appreciation of 213 % in less than a month) . Giddy ? ?

The truth is that it is difficult to say whether this is a bubble in the price of Bitcoins or not. The revaluation is meteoric and scares , but let's look at the facts coldly.

1 - There are some Bitcoins nearly 11 million currently issued . The maximum number of Bitcoins to be issued will be 21 million. This figure will be achieved beyond 2033 . I attached the expected curve creating Bitcoins

number bitcoins

That is successful if the Bitcoin going to be a pretty lame and how well its currency relative to other currencies 'official' is set according to supply and demand, as you gain popularity Bitcoins demand will to be much higher than the number of Bitcoins that will be created , so the equation can only be adjusted via price .

2 - It seems that its creators had already planned on success that Bitcoin could suffer sharp increases in the price. It is created with 8 decimal currency . For one day a reach Bitcoin worth $ 100,000 can still make small transactions with 0.00001 $ 1 left over we Bitcoins and decimals.

3 - The current use of Bitcoins and its popularity is still in diapers, need to build a robust ecosystem of companies that facilitate their use and still is a minority option . But more and more services or companies are adopting it as a payment option , including WordPress , Mega or Reddit . BitPay a Bitcoin payment processor in March has seen shopping with Bitcoins were made amounting to $ 2 million , ie one months has processed 66% of all transactions processed in 2012.

That is Bitcoin is a two-way upward pressure on prices . On the one hand people fleeing the traditional banking system frightened by Cyprus , on the other how adoption through payment settled. If the current price is not outright bubble or not I have no idea, because everything depends on the success and adoption have, but it gives the feeling that the snowball effect or the traction needed for a successful Bitcoin has already begun .

By the way the market is still relatively narrow Bitcoins . At any time if someone is selling a considerable amount of Bitcoins normal is to sink the price.

By the way the same Thursday that the value of getting Bitcoins exceed one billion dollars, Bitcoin spoke on the news of TVE (just know one coming out in the news )

If deposits fall in February at 2.079 million .. just wait the March data

Bank deposits of residents in Spain have dropped in February at 2.079 million euros compared to the previous month and have scored his second consecutive decline , corresponding to the first two months of the year, according to provisional data released by the Bank of Spain .

Specifically , the Spanish deposits totaled 1.484 billion euros in February 2013 , compared to 1.575 billion a year ago. Thus, reduced bank deposits saw the Spanish residents in the last twelve months of 2012 at about 91.117 million .

All Quiet :

Seem to think we have no memory and have already appeared the first financial industry sources indicate that this decrease is equivalent to February seasonal effect is already felt in the first month of the year when normally the deposits are reduced because that citizens have less money to spend , so there is a reduction in demand accounts .

Moreover, this decline unlinked communication that the Bank of Spain moved to financial institutions to restrain the return of their deposits under the threat of being penalized.

In the chart you can see the drop in deposits that we had last July 2012. At that time we also sold the same bike :

At the time , Secretary of State for Economic and Business Support , Fernando Jiménez Latorre, assured us that the Government had detected a " significant withdrawal " of deposits in Spain and part of the fall was due to seasonal factors , and companies had to pay taxes the day after the end of the quarter , so we have resorted to deposits in July to meet these payments. For families in July and August also have a seasonal spending for vacation , which explains the withdrawal of bank deposits.

For despite that July 2012 was a purely seasonal factor seems to have become the norm since we never get that level .

Meanwhile , deposits in Spain of residents in other states of the Economic and Monetary Union grew by 3.756 million , for a total of 37.856 million . This represents an increase of 11% compared to January.

Said the interesting fact to begin to see the impact it has had the rescue, confiscation and deposits in Cyprus playpen between the Spanish begin to see with the data of March and April , even if you tell us that if there is a fall is due to a purely seasonal ... Easter effect .

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